(ANSA) - ROME, NOV 15 - The European Commission said in its autumn economic forecasts on Friday that it sees Italy's GDP rising 0.7% this year, down from the figure of 0.9% it predicted in May.
    The figure is also lower than the Italian government's growth forecast of 1% for 2024.
    The Commission trimmed its forecast growth for Italy for 2025 too, from 1.1% to 1%.
    It sees Italy's GDP increasing by 1.2% in 2026.
    The Commission said it estimates Italy's public debt-to-GDP ratio will be 136.6% in 2024 and then rise to 138.2% in 2025 and 139.3% in 2026.
    This is better than its spring forecasts of ratios of 138.6% in 2024 and 141.7% in 2025.
    The draft budget plan the Italian government sent to Brussels sees the debt-to-GDP ratio at the end of 2024 at 135.8%, then at 136.9 % in 2025 and 137.8 % in 2026.
    The Commission said it estimates that Italy's deficit will decrease to 3.8% of GDP in 2024 from 7.2 % last year, and will fall to 3.4 % in 2025 and 2.9 % in 2026.
    The figures are downward revisions on the spring estimates of 4.4% in 2024 and 4.7% in 2025.
    The Italian budget document sees the deficit-to-GDP ratio falling to 3.3% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026.
    European Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni, meanwhile, said Italy and Germany are the EU countries that are most exposed to the protectionist trade policies United States President-elect Donald Trump's new administration is expected to implement.
    "It is obvious that this scenario could have repercussions in some countries, particularly in the countries most exposed," the former Italian premier said when presenting the autumn economic forecasts in relation to the looming US tariffs. "The two countries with the highest trade surpluses with the US are Germany and Italy.
    "So there is a potential impact, especially in some countries".
    Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta also warned against the "illusion" of "erecting protectionist barriers as a solution to the problems" of our economies. Speaking at a G7 conference on the 'fragmentation of the trading system', Panetta said protectionism was like using a "kitchen knife... for carrying out a complex surgical operation".
    He added that "the division of the global economy into rival blocs would only lead to more negatives than positives.
    "The freedom to trade goods and services, to invest across borders and to share knowledge and ideas are prerequisites for ensuring prosperity and peace," he continued.
    "The costs of fragmentation are not only economic, they also affect social progress, international cooperation and freedom".
    Italy's public debt was largely stable at close to three billion euros in September, the Bank of Italy said on Friday.
    The central bank said the national debt was 2,962.3 billion euros in September, up by 700 million compared to August.
    Italy's annual inflation rate rose from 0.7% in September to 0.9% in October, Istat said on Friday, confirming the preliminary estimate it had given for its consumer price index last month. "The increase of the growth on annual basis of all-item index was mainly due to the prices of processed food including alcohol (from +1.5% to +1.7%), of unprocessed food (from +0.3% to +3.4%), of non-regulated energy products (from -11.0% to -10.2%) and of services related to transport (from +2.4% to +3.0%)," the national statistics agency said.
    "On the contrary, the prices of regulated energy products (from +10.4% to +3.9%) and of services related to recreation, including repair and personal care (from +4.0% to +3.6%) slowed down".
    Istat said its consumer price index was flat in month-on- month terms.
    The agency said its trolley index of the prices of food, household and personal-care items rose on an annual basis to 2%, up from 1%. (ANSA).